Comments on: The end is nigh http://www.insomniaproductions.com/wordpress/2009/09/17/the-end-is-nigh/ Somewhere to vent Thu, 01 Apr 2010 14:48:01 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Mister Angry http://www.insomniaproductions.com/wordpress/2009/09/17/the-end-is-nigh/comment-page-1/#comment-8 Mister Angry Fri, 18 Sep 2009 21:32:54 +0000 http://www.insomniaproductions.com/wordpress/?p=21#comment-8 People made a big deal about Y2K, even though nothing much happened, mostly because there was good money to be made from panicking people about it. Requesting a bigger I.T. budget for 1999? Cite Y2K as the reason. Are you an out of work COBOL programmer? Hype Y2K and convince some big bank they need you back to check over their legacy system. You get the idea. The opposite is true with IPv6 - there will be good money to be made fixing the mess once everything breaks, or to prevent everything from breaking, because the developed world really can't function properly without the 'net anymore. On the other hand, in these financial times, nobody wants to spend any money to <em>prevent</em> a problem that the majority of netizens aren't worrying about. Also, many decision-makers think this problem is already solved, or that it's not a big deal, as in "We'll just change over to IPv6 when the time comes", so the I.T. people who are requesting funds and manpower to start changing things over <em>now</em> keep getting blocked by an upper management that is still thinking "oh, we've still got years left before the IP shortage becomes an issue, and that IPv6 thing is supposed to solve it. Besides, that's a lot of money Bob in I.T. is asking for" And so it goes. The money won't get spent until people start complaining, and one thing John Q. Public has <em>not</em> been doing is bitching that he doesn't have IPv6. It's a non issue for most end users, and will continue to be so until something finally breaks, then it will suddenly become <em>the</em> issue. The problem is, in a nutshell, that nothing will be done until someone panics, and by the time someone panics it will be too late to migrate to IPv6 in any sane and reasonable way. The sane migration route is to have everyone on the planet using IPv6 <em>before</em> the IPv4 addresses run out. Can it be done in the remaining 2 to 3 years? Probably, but it will take a lot of money and even more time. I don't think anyone is going to find the political or financial will to do so until the big guys start losing revenue because "the Internet is broken". People made a big deal about Y2K, even though nothing much happened, mostly because there was good money to be made from panicking people about it. Requesting a bigger I.T. budget for 1999? Cite Y2K as the reason. Are you an out of work COBOL programmer? Hype Y2K and convince some big bank they need you back to check over their legacy system. You get the idea. The opposite is true with IPv6 – there will be good money to be made fixing the mess once everything breaks, or to prevent everything from breaking, because the developed world really can’t function properly without the ‘net anymore. On the other hand, in these financial times, nobody wants to spend any money to prevent a problem that the majority of netizens aren’t worrying about.

Also, many decision-makers think this problem is already solved, or that it’s not a big deal, as in “We’ll just change over to IPv6 when the time comes”, so the I.T. people who are requesting funds and manpower to start changing things over now keep getting blocked by an upper management that is still thinking “oh, we’ve still got years left before the IP shortage becomes an issue, and that IPv6 thing is supposed to solve it. Besides, that’s a lot of money Bob in I.T. is asking for”

And so it goes. The money won’t get spent until people start complaining, and one thing John Q. Public has not been doing is bitching that he doesn’t have IPv6. It’s a non issue for most end users, and will continue to be so until something finally breaks, then it will suddenly become the issue. The problem is, in a nutshell, that nothing will be done until someone panics, and by the time someone panics it will be too late to migrate to IPv6 in any sane and reasonable way.

The sane migration route is to have everyone on the planet using IPv6 before the IPv4 addresses run out. Can it be done in the remaining 2 to 3 years? Probably, but it will take a lot of money and even more time. I don’t think anyone is going to find the political or financial will to do so until the big guys start losing revenue because “the Internet is broken”.

]]> By: desert rat http://www.insomniaproductions.com/wordpress/2009/09/17/the-end-is-nigh/comment-page-1/#comment-5 desert rat Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:44:14 +0000 http://www.insomniaproductions.com/wordpress/?p=21#comment-5 Y2K was supposed to be the end of the world, too. Far as I can tell, we're all still here. Some super-smart nerd will figure something out before it's too late. If not, I'll have a great excuse to spend more time in my garden. Y2K was supposed to be the end of the world, too. Far as I can tell, we’re all still here. Some super-smart nerd will figure something out before it’s too late. If not, I’ll have a great excuse to spend more time in my garden.

]]> By: Zilla's Other Half http://www.insomniaproductions.com/wordpress/2009/09/17/the-end-is-nigh/comment-page-1/#comment-4 Zilla's Other Half Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:49:27 +0000 http://www.insomniaproductions.com/wordpress/?p=21#comment-4 So the question that comes to my mind, now that the smart people who wrote IP6 have been pointed to the fact that the world will, apparently, end as a result of their hard work, is, do you think someone will raise their head out of the sand long enough in the next 700 days to find some sort of pathway that maybe will allow vs. 4 to talk to vs 6 (or vice versa)? Or are they just going to throw up their hands and say there's nothing they can do? So the question that comes to my mind, now that the smart people who wrote IP6 have been pointed to the fact that the world will, apparently, end as a result of their hard work, is, do you think someone will raise their head out of the sand long enough in the next 700 days to find some sort of pathway that maybe will allow vs. 4 to talk to vs 6 (or vice versa)? Or are they just going to throw up their hands and say there’s nothing they can do?

]]> By: Grondzilla http://www.insomniaproductions.com/wordpress/2009/09/17/the-end-is-nigh/comment-page-1/#comment-3 Grondzilla Fri, 18 Sep 2009 04:39:35 +0000 http://www.insomniaproductions.com/wordpress/?p=21#comment-3 This brings to mind the idea that as a group we often do our best thinking in a state of crises. Perhaps as we get down to that last few months some really clever bugger is going to figure out how the transition will be managed without invoking the end times. Are there inklings of short cuts that you're aware of that will might point in this direction? This brings to mind the idea that as a group we often do our best thinking in a state of crises. Perhaps as we get down to that last few months some really clever bugger is going to figure out how the transition will be managed without invoking the end times. Are there inklings of short cuts that you’re aware of that will might point in this direction?

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